Haiyang Zhang Google Scholar Profile
Strategic Focus: Evidence from Private Equity Transactions in US Power Generation Sector (presenting at SMS Annual Conference 2025 in San Francisco, CA)
Entrepreneurial Projection Strategy
Abstract: To raise money or mobilize other resources, an entrepreneur provides information about the projected business opportunity to a prospective investor. However, existing literature overlooks that this information is largely forward-looking and unverifiable. To fill this gap, we seek to understand how investors interpret this information, and in turn, what information an entrepreneur should strategically provide. We advance a theory of entrepreneurial projection strategy that addresses how aggressive or conservative an entrepreneur should be in the projections provided to a resource holder. In a study of 460 investors evaluating 286 business plans, we find that entrepreneurs benefit from providing to investors larger five-year revenue projections if they take a number of steps to package that projection as credible. In particular, more aggressive projections are more likely to persuade investors when the entrepreneur also provides information about the potential risks and a plan of action, and when the investor lacks relevant experience and a competitive comparison group.
Incorporating Google Trends Data in Predicting Consumer Confidence in Sri Lanka (Central Bank of Sri Lanka presentation)
Abstract: The paper examines the benefits of incorporating Google Trends data in predicting consumer confidence in Sri Lanka: i. Increasing prediction accuracy: The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is able to forecast consumer confidence with greater certainty. ii. Reducing time lag: The Central Bank is able to make real-time prediction of consumer confidence. The first benefit results from the ability of using Google search queries to reflect consumer confidence. Google Inc. classifies search queries into categories via Google Trends service. Incorporating Google Trends data increases the predictive power of the forecast model, compared to AR(1) baseline. The second benefit arises because Google Trends data are available in real time. Economic time series, like consumer confidence, are reported infrequently, often monthly or quarterly. Using Google Trends data reducing the time lag of consumer confidence reporting.
The Impact of China’s Official Development Finance on Other Developing Countries
Abstract: The paper uses a fixed effect model to detect the impact of China’s official development finance program. It shows that China’s official development finance has a positive effect on bilateral trade. Further, China’s official development finance has stronger effect on bilateral trade in democratic recipient countries than in autocratic ones. Likewise, it has stronger effect on bilateral trade in the least developed countries (LDCs) than in middle-income countries (MICs). The results of the paper make the argument for China to direct more official development finance to recipient countries with democratic attributes and at a low level of per capita income, assuming promoting bilateral trade is one of China’s policy objectives. The results of the paper have significant policy implications in international development, because assisting the least developed members with democratic attributes is both in China’s own interest and is broadly consistent with the view held by traditional donors and lenders.
Commodity Bonds: A Practical Solution to Crisis Vulnerability in Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (with Proença, Qamar and Simard)
Included in the book “Financing Sustainable Development : Ideas for Action 2017,” published by the World Bank Group
Received Honorable Mention at the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2017
Abstract: Over two-thirds of developing countries’ economies are highly dependent on commodities. These Commodity Dependent Developing Countries (CDDCs) face lower long-term growth prospects and higher risks of entering and remaining in international debt crises. Commodity bonds—bond contracts with coupon payments linked to the price of a country’s main commodity export—are an efficient way of promoting crisis resilience in CDDCs. The idea of commodity bonds is not new. However, commodity bond markets never achieved enough scale to become a viable option for CDDCs. Here we review past experience, identify barriers to adoption, and propose a novel arrangement to overcome these challenges. In our solution, the World Bank plays an important role in disentangling sovereign risk from commodity risk, making the commodity bond market more attractive to both debt issuing countries and private sector lenders. We illustrate the proposal with an application to Mongolia—a country with over 40 percent of export revenue from copper alone. Finally, we present a practical implementation plan to create a large, liquid commodity bond market that would present a new option for CDDCs to increase economic resilience and enhance long-term growth.
Haiyang Zhang 